The Bucs have some big contract decisions to make this offseason, and so far, a lot of the talk has been about quarterback Baker Mayfield and legendary wide receiver Mike Evans. Tampa Bay will surely want to lock both of those players into new contracts and ride into 2024 with its QB1 and WR1 back together for some much-needed continuity on offense.

But there are some other big decisions to make on the defensive side of the ball. One has to do with another team legend in Lavonte David, but the perennially underrated linebacker will have to decide if he wants to keep playing first. The other massive free agent the Bucs have on defense is Antoine Winfield Jr., who will be back. But what will his price tag be in 2024? Will Tampa Bay shell out a multi-year extension for him, or will general manager Jason Licht and Co. decide to have him play on the franchise tag?

What Would A New Contract Look Like For Antoine Winfield Jr.?
Antoine Winfield Jr. is coming off of a career year that saw him earn First Team All-Pro honors, even if he was an egregious snub from the Pro Bowl.

The fourth-year safety totaled career highs in several categories, including tackles. His 122 tackles (76 solo), were the second-most on the team this season. Winfield also had six sacks, which led all defensive backs in the league this year, along with an NFL-high six forced fumbles.

The former second-round pick also had four fumble recoveries, three interceptions and 12 passes defensed.

There’s no doubt that the Bucs will want to keep Winfield around as one of their defensive leaders for the long term. But what would a new contract look like for the 25-year-old?

Back in October, Pewter Report’s resident cap expert Josh Queipo projected a deal for Winfield at three years for around $58 million. Here’s an excerpt from what he wrote at the time:

“With Winfield having just turned 25 in August, a three-year deal would allow him to attempt to get to one more multi-year deal at 29. Three years at $19.375 million would get the total contract to $58.125 million.

“While the other top-paid safeties received about 50-56% of their total contract values in guarantees, Winfield would conceivably get a higher percentage because of the shorter nature of his contract. At about 70% guaranteed, he would get $40 million guaranteed, which would put him just $2 million shy of (Derwin) James.

“With a $17.5 million signing bonus and a $10 million salary in year one, Winfield would have a year one cash flow of $27.5 million, which would eclipse every safety and he would get the entire cash flow in three years, which would also be more than any of the other players currently at the top of the safety market.”

More recently, Queipo and Kyle DeDiminicantanio projected a three-year, $61.5 million deal with $20.5 million per year and $40 million of it guaranteed.

Might The Bucs Consider Franchise Tagging Antoine Winfield Jr.?
The Bucs could choose to sign Antoine Winfield Jr. to a long-term deal now, but franchise tagging their youngest defensive captain might be more sensible given the other offseason moves they have to make.

The franchise tag would lock the outstanding safety in for 2024 at a projected $18,216,000. That would allow the Bucs to take care of the other contracts they need to handle this offseason before circling back around and giving their Walter Payton Man of the Year nominee a multi-year, big-money deal next offseason.

Queipo and DeDiminicantanio labeled the likelihood of Winfield being franchise tagged as “high.”

Queipo wrote about the franchise tag possibility back in October as well, saying the following:

“The pro to Winfield working on the tag would be deferring his long-term deal to a year when the salary cap will almost certainly go up yet again. 7.75% of $250 million puts Winfield just a hair beyond James’ $19 million AAV. But if the cap were to reach, say $285 million in 2025, 7.75% of that would equate to an AAV of just under $22.1 million and kick his guaranteed money to somewhere between $43 million-46 million.”

The risk for Winfield on a franchise tag is that he wouldn’t get the security he likely wants. However, that salary of around $18 million in 2024 would be fully guaranteed and with another phenomenal season like he had in 2023, he would have a chance to cash in even bigger next offseason. As Queipo wrote, the salary cap will presumably increase once again, and that would move his projected deal — and the guaranteed money with it — a level up.

Queipo and DeDiminicantanio aren’t the only ones projecting a franchise tag for Winfield. In a recent article, Pro Football Focus’ Marcus Mosher identified a franchise tag candidate on all 32 teams in the NFL. For the Bucs, that candidate was unsurprisingly Antoine Winfield Jr.

“You can make a case that Winfield was the best safety in the NFL this season. He had the highest run-defense grade (91.5) among all safeties this season and has turned himself into a star. The Buccaneers already have one of the most expensive secondaries in the NFL, but they can’t afford to lose Winfield in free agency.”

That last line is consistent with what PFF’s Brad Spielberger recently wrote, as he called Winfield the one Bucs free agent who must be re-signed.

We’ll soon see what the Bucs decide to do with this decision on Winfield. Other moves may hint at the which direction they’re leaning, but the deadline for franchise tagging players is March 5 at 4:00 p.m. ET.