Kirk Cousins may not be back with the Minnesota Vikings next season, but the pressure to re-sign him just went up after Baker Mayfield — widely regarded as the No. 2 QB potentially available in free agency this year — signed a deal to return to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler was the first to report Mayfield’s extension, which will have direct implications on Minnesota’s decisions under center in the days — and potentially weeks — to come.

Source: #Bucs and Baker Mayfield are closing in on a three-year deal for $100M in total and $50M guaranteed, max $115M

“Source: #Bucs and Baker Mayfield are closing in on a three-year deal for $100 [million] total and $50 [million] guaranteed, max $115 [million],” Fowler posted to X on Sunday, March 10.

Tampa Bay and Mayfield finalized the deal later that same day, less than 24 hours before the NFL’s legal tampering period opens and impending free agents are allowed to begin negotiations with all 32 teams in the league.

Mayfield followed the news by speaking publicly about the reasoning involved in returning to the Bucs rather than testing the waters of free agency, which might well have carried him to Minneapolis as Cousins’ eventual replacement.

“I wanted a chance to come back,” Mayfied said, per Adam Schefter of ESPN. “I love coach Bowles and the staff. I’m happy to be here, and I want to win more in the postseason.”

Kirk Cousins Among Winners After Bucs Re-Sign Baker Mayfield

Despite heading into his age-36 season after suffering the worst injury of his 12-year NFL career, Cousins already had a significant amount of negotiating leverage where an extension in Minnesota was concerned. Sunday’s events involving Mayfield have only strengthened Cousins’ position, as the Vikings’ options to replace him have grown thinner over the last several hours.

The impasse between Minnesota and its six-year starting QB is guaranteed money, particularly guarantees in the third year of a potential extension, when Cousins will be 38 years old.

Pro Football Focus (PFF) listed Cousins as the No. 2 potential free agent in the 2024 class behind only defensive tackle Chris Jones, who won’t hit the market after signing a historic extension with the Kansas City Chiefs over the weekend. That makes the Vikings quarterback the de facto top free agent available should he fail to sign an extension in Minnesota before the new league year begins on March 13.

Even still, PFF does not project that Cousins will ultimately get the third year he is seeking — be it from the Vikings or elsewhere. The website projects that the quarterback will sign a two-year deal worth $80 million total, with $60 million fully guaranteed.

“An ill-timed torn Achilles derailed another strong season from Cousins, and he looked set to have a host of suitors in free agency, as he did back in 2018,” PFF contributors wrote. “Cousins still has the requisite arm strength to throw to all levels of the field and has been as accurate as ever in recent seasons.”

Vikings Will Take Major Risk if They Let QB Kirk Cousins Hit Unrestricted Free Agency

Whether Cousins can get the third year he wants isn’t so much the development of consequence as the fact that he is just hours away from unrestricted free agency.

By Monda, Cousins will be able to negotiate with other teams — such as the Atlanta Falcons, who represent the biggest threat to Minnesota. By Wednesday, he will be able to sign anywhere he chooses.

If Cousins gets that far, his contract will also void, leaving Minnesota will be saddled with a $28.5 million salary cap hit as a result. Beyond that, if Cousins lands elsewhere, the chances the Vikings ‘lose’ the offseason grows significantly.

Minnesota holds the No. 11 pick in the first round of the draft and can probably get its hands on a quality QB prospect in that spot. But whoever he is, he won’t be the sort of can’t-miss player that the majority of NFL analysts are dubbing quarterbacks like Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels —who may well end up coming off the board at picks Nos. 1 and 2, respectively.

The Vikings can try to trade into the top three, but doing so may cost them as much as two future firsts along with the No. 11 selection this year, which makes such a deal a massive gamble. If Minnesota stays put, the team can sign a bridge QB at a reasonable number — perhaps Russell Wilson or Sam Darnold — then develop a player drafted at No. 11 for a year or two.

The latter solution appears the most viable if Cousins doesn’t return, but the notion that the Vikings will be a Super Bowl contender in the next two years is at best a stretch should that scenario ultimately play out.