It’s Senior Bowl week, which means the NFL rumor mill is firing on all cylinders. Smack-dab in the middle of these rumors is Sean Payton and the Denver Broncos.
On Monday, a report broke that Payton plans to make a “big move” up the NFL draft board to secure one of the “top” quarterbacks in the class. Currently holding the No. 12 overall pick, there are concerns that the Broncos won’t be in position to land one of the top guys, considering the number of QB-needy teams ahead of them in the draft.
That means Denver will have to trade up in order to improve its odds. To get into the top-3, however, it’d take a king’s ransom. The price may include Pro Bowl cornerback Patrick Surtain II, according to long-time NFL draft insider Tony Pauline, even though it would be a “last result.”
Payton wants one of the top passers- Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, or Jayden Daniels.
It’s almost a certainty the top three quarterbacks, coveted by several teams including the Broncos, will immediately come off the board by the franchises presently holding the top three picks- the Chicago Bears, Washington Commanders, and New England Patriots.
At present time there’s little wiggle room for any of those teams willing to move down unless a blockbuster deal is placed in front of them. And a blockbuster deal from the Denver Broncos would surely include cornerback Patrick Surtain. I’m told while the franchise doesn’t want to trade Surtain, they would consider moving the corner only as a last result to secure one of the top passers.
That’s the tough situation the Broncos find themselves in — Payton is willing to trade up, but there might not be a taker. Chicago, Washington, and New England have reportedly been unflinching when it comes to trading back, and, after all, each team is very QB-desperate.
However, there’s still a decent chance that a quarterback will be there at No. 12, which could help assuage one of these team’s concerns, especially if Surtain is dangled as a sweetener. Some draft experts have expressed doubts that any of the top QBs, except perhaps Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy, will still be available, but it’s hard to foresee that many signal-callers going in the top-11.
Oregon’s Bo Nix and Washington’s Michael Penix, Jr. — both currently competing down in Mobile, AL, at the Senior Bowl — are likely to be there at No. 12, so if you’re Chicago, Washington, or New England, and you have the chance at hauling in as many as a couple of first-round picks, probably a 2025 second-rounder, and more draft capital, plus landing arguably the best young corner in the league, while still having a plausible shot at one of the class’ top-five QBs, perhaps you don’t look that gift-horse in the mouth.
If Payton is truly hell-bent on landing his quarterback — the lynchpin personnel piece to rebuilding the Broncos’ roster in his image — he’ll stop at nothing and be aggressive. Trading away so much to land a QB, on the heels of back-to-back offseasons where Denver has dealt away multiple first and second-round picks, is sure to make many Broncos fans uneasy.
To quote the great Cecil Lammey, the NFL is a ‘got man’ league. You’ve either ‘got’ your ‘man’ at QB, or you’re a sub-.500 team. The Broncos have been on the losing end of that NFL arithmetic for eight years now.
The hope was that Russell Wilson — a nine-time Pro Bowler coming off his 10th season when Denver acquired him — would be that stable presence under center to elevate the Broncos out of the NFL doldrums. But as Pauline writes, Wilson has failed to meet expectations, and even an accomplished coach with a sterling resume like Payton knows that the clock is ticking on his job security in Denver.
Whatever honeymoon period the Football Gods fated to Payton, it’s likely been extinguished on the heels of the Broncos’ 8-9 finish and the controversial nature of how he handled the Wilson benching in Week 17. If Payton is going to turn the ship around in Denver and make good on his promises to ownership, he needs his quarterback.
We can speculate on exactly how much draft capital the Broncos would have to relinquish to get that bonafide franchise guy. But that’s not really the question.
The question is this: what wouldn’t Payton and company be willing to relinquish if it meant solving the quarterback problem that has plagued the Broncos since Peyton Manning hung up his cleats? The reality is that Surtain may have to go into the trade pot to get one of those teams in the top-3 to budge, even if it is a “last result,” to quote Pauline.