According to ESPN’s Brady Henderson, it is not certain that quarterback Geno Smith will be back with the Seahawks in 2024. After all, longtime head coach Pete Carroll — who was one of Smith’s biggest champions and who frequently deflected blame away from the veteran passer — has been shifted to an advisory role. GM John Schneider now holds the final say over personnel matters, and his evaluation of Smith’s performance is not as glowing as Carroll’s was.

“I think Geno had a good season,” Schneider said last month. “It was a little bit opposite of [2022]. He started out real strong last year and things dipped a little bit the second half. And then I thought this year he started out not quite as strong as last year and then finished in a real strong manner.”

Henderson, whose piece was published before Seattle hired Mike Macdonald as its new head coach, noted that Schneider would of course discuss Smith’s future with his new HC. At his introductory press conference, Macdonald offered praise for Smith, saying that he has “great respect” for him.

“We’ve played against Geno,” Macdonald added (via the team’s official website). “He’s a really good player. I’m pretty sure he’s at the Pro Bowl right now. We’re going to build around the quarterback. You’ve got to.”

At the risk of inferring meaning where there is none, Macdonald did not explicitly commit to Smith as the quarterback around whom the Seahawks would be building, and the team is still in search of a new offensive coordinator, who will also have input into the matter. That said, Henderson suggests Smith has a good chance to return as Seattle’s QB1.

If the team chooses to go in a different direction, Henderson believes a trade is more likely than a release. Smith’s $12.7M salary for 2024, currently guaranteed for injury only, converts to a full guarantee on Feb. 16. That is effectively the deadline to cut Smith, but not necessarily to trade him. After all, he is not due his $9.6M roster bonus until March 17 — the fifth day of the new league year — and by that time, the team will have had the chance to explore the quarterback options it might have in this year’s draft (to say nothing of getting some sort of trade compensation from an acquiring club).

As Schneider observed, Smith performed well down the stretch of the 2023 season, although he was unable to match the overall production of his breakout 2022 performance. In 2022, Smith led the league in completion percentage (69.8) and threw for 30 TDs against 11 interceptions, which amounted to a 100.9 quarterback rating and 62.8 QBR. In two fewer games in 2023, the former second-round pick of the Jets completed 64.7% of his passes for 20 touchdowns and nine picks, leading to a quarterback rating of 92.1 and a QBR of 59.5. If Macdonald & Co. can help Smith marry the first half of his 2022 campaign with the second half of his 2023 season, they may be on to something.

Although he is due to hit free agency in March, Drew Lock would be the most likely candidate to assume the QB1 job — at least in the short term — if the Seahawks were to part ways with Smith. Schneider has long been high on the 27-year-old, who was a key part of the return in the 2022 blockbuster that sent Russell Wilson from Seattle to the Broncos, but as Henderson writes, Lock being retained as the starter would indicate that the ‘Hawks view 2024 as a retooling year, which is inconsistent with Schneider’s belief that his club is “on the cusp” of serious championship contention.

As Armando Salguero of Outkick.com wrote at the end of December, Lock views himself as a starter and will seek such an opportunity if he hits the open market. In two starts in relief of an injured Smith in 2023, Lock completed 68.8% of his passes for three TDs and two interceptions. He went 1-1 in those contests, with the one victory coming on an impressive late-game drive against the Eagles in Week 15.

Smith is under club control through 2025 and is due to carry a $31.2M cap charge this year. Henderson suggests that, if the Seahawks move forward with Smith, they could look to convert some of his salary and/or roster bonus into a signing bonus to reduce that number.