As we get closer to the actual start of the NFL offseason, there has been more and more speculation that the Patriots draft plans include dropping down from the No. 3 spot and looking to expand their base of draft picks as the team attempts to revamp a dismal offense that has holes in just about every unit. But, hey, sometimes it pays to zig when everyone’s expecting you to zag.

That’s the notion from the newest NFL mock draft at CBS Sports, which not only does not have the Patriots trading down to accumulate picks, it has them trading up to take the consensus top quarterback on the board, USC’s Caleb Williams.

That would be a shocking move on a lot of levels, especially since the author of the mock, Will Brinson, suggests that the price the Patriots would pay to land Williams is .. well, hefty. “In this particular instance, the Bears get THREE future firsts and a 2024 second-round pick from the Patriots to move down to No. 3. The Pats are that desperate for a quarterback, and it’s the opposite of what Bill Belichick would do,” Brinson wrote.

Patriots Draft Plans Should Not Include Moving Up

Indeed, it might be the opposite of what Belichick and/or most sentient adults would do, because giving up three future first-round picks and this year’s second rounder—which is No. 34 overall—is an insane price to pay to move up two spots for a quarterback who has gotten plenty of hype but who only plays one position on an offensive roster that has seven or eight holes.

The Patriots are desperate for a quarterback, but there are other options that won’t mortgage the future to that extent. Remember, the Panthers tried a similar trade last season to land Bryce Young with the top pick, and while Young has some promise, the Panthers still were a terrible two-win team, and Carolina lost out on this year’s No. 1 pick.

Any notion the Patriots have of forking over a trove of picks to slide up two spots for Williams should be tempered by the lesson that can be learned from the Carolina predicament. You can add a talented young quarterback but if you drop him into a mess of a team, you’re still going to go 2-15.

Caleb Williams Needs a Supporting Cast

All of that is not to say that Williams is not a worthy No. 1 pick. Certainly, it appears that the Bears have determined he will be their guy going forward, as they’ve sought to unload current started Justin Fields for a decent draft pick. That pursuit has been difficult, though.

The Patriots, too, are an option for a Fields trade. But a Patriots draft that gives up the opportunity to build depth just to get Williams makes little sense.

Getting Williams would be great, but only if the Patriots had the infrastructure to help him. NFL.com’s scouting report of Williams notes that he tends to over-scramble and try to make plays himself too often, and that having a supporting cast he can trust is important. The Patriots do not have that in place.

“It is admirable that he looks to keep his eyes up and make throws outside the pocket, but he’ll make things easier on himself early in his pro career by becoming a more decisive scrambler to move the sticks and carry on to the next set of downs,” NFL.com’s Lance Zeurlein wrote. “Williams is tremendously talented but often bites off too much responsibility and plays off-schedule.

“He has a good chance to hit new heights with a surrounding cast he trusts, but greater self-discipline and a well-structured offense might be needed to help him become a quarterback who can elevate a franchise to championship contention.”