It’s tough to predict what the Denver Broncos will do with the No. 12 overall pick in the upcoming NFL draft. Recent rumors coming out of the Senior Bowl have Sean Payton gearing up for a spectacular trade-up to land one of the “top” quarterback prospects in the class.

Of course, the dream would be Denver landing Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, or Jayden Daniels, but fans should pump the brakes on the notion of a blockbuster trade-up. Draft season and its accompanying fever should come with a safety warning. It can make fans feel so intoxicated that reason goes out the window.

The fact is, the Broncos are currently marooned in a kind of no man’s land when it comes to the draft. That’s greatly magnified when a team is hoping to hit on a quarterback with only six picks at its disposal, and said club isn’t necessarily in a position to trade away additional assets after two years of relinquishing premium draft capital.

ESPN draft analyst Jordan Reid recently threw a wet blanket on Broncos Country’s quarterback excitement when he chronicled the inherent difficulties Denver is facing in picking at No. 12 in a QB-driven draft.

“It’s tough,’’ Reid said told Chris Tomasson of The Denver Gazette. “There’s a consensus top three quarterbacks (in Williams, Maye and Daniels), and after that, if you ask scouts and those who work in the league, everybody has a mixed bag for the next tier. And then the Broncos have all around them in the draft teams that need a quarterback, whether it’s Atlanta at 8, Minnesota at 11, and the Raiders at 13. So, it’s a real tricky spot for them.”

Dipping our toes back into the ice-cold water of harsh reality, any potential trade-up would surely see Denver’s superstar cornerback Patrick Surtain II leaving town, and that’s a scary proposition. In a world where the ‘science’ of evaluating quarterbacks is far from foolproof, the first swing the Broncos take on a signal-caller in the draft has to clear the fence.

However, the Broncos can’t lose sight of the plethora of QB options also in play beyond Round 1 and even outside of the draft. Heck, it’s still possible Russell Wilson might return to the fold in 2024. If we dismiss that unlikely scenario, though, trading back in the first round might actually present Denver with the best strategy.

On the other hand, without a second-round pick this year, the Broncos are in no position to pounce on a signal-caller who may suffer a draft-day plummet if things play out that way. It all presents a loaded-gun scenario and one that draft expert Dane Brugler of The Athletic has foretold as a cautionary tale.

“When you talk about quarterbacks, you don’t want to get too cute (by trading down),’’ Brugler said via Tomasson. “I think in a perfect world, let’s just say that the Broncos zero in on Bo Nix as their guy and they feel there’s a clear difference between him and these other quarterbacks. You don’t want to drop too far back and miss (a quarterback). I know it’s valuable to pick up that extra second-round pick, or an extra day-two pick, by trading back but the first and foremost thing is you need to get the quarterback that’s right for you.”

How the Broncos navigate the draft for QB remains to be seen, but the nature of draft season for a quarterback-needy team creates no small amount of hype and speculation. When push comes to shove, the Broncos sticking to their draft board might deliver different results than many might expect.

Don’t be particularly surprised if the Broncos end up sticking at No. 12 instead of twisting on April 25.