The Green Bay Packers intend to make some noise in free agency and are poised to do so at running back, a position most teams are overlooking.
Matt Schneidman of The Athletic on Wednesday, March 6 authored a list of “big swings” Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst might feasibly make in free agency this offseason. Among the positions most examined were safety — where the team is likely to lose multiple contributors, including starter and former first-round pick Darnell Savage — and running back, where AJ Dillon is unlikely to return in 2024.
The first running back Schneidman noted as a fit in Green Bay was Saquon Barkley of the New York Giants, who played last year on the franchise tag and will officially become an unrestricted free agent on March 13.
“The Packers were reportedly interested in trading for Indianapolis Colts star running back Jonathan Taylor last season, indicating they’d be willing to pair two feature backs together for the short term instead of settling for a clear-cut No. 1 and No. 2, as they had with [Aaron] Jones and AJ Dillon,” Schneidman wrote.
The proposal to bring Barkley in and keep Jones through the end of his $48 million contract, which expires following the 2024 campaign, makes the most sense if Green Bay intends to transition to Barkley full time and let Jones walk following the upcoming season.
“Barkley and Jones would instantly become the NFL’s best backfield, even if it’s only for one year, and give the Packers a guy in Barkley whom they could keep for multiple years to headline their running game (he turned 27 in February) assuming they part ways with Jones (who turns 30 in December) earlier than that and don’t re-sign Dillon this offseason,” Schneidman continued.
Argument Against Packers Signing RB Saquon Barkley Purely Financial
The primary argument against adding Barkley and keeping Jones is the total amount of salary cap space the Packers would be committing to the running back position, which most teams are devaluing rather than doubling down on.
Spotrac projects Barkley’s market value at $9.9 million annually over a new three-year contract (approximately $30 million total), while Jones’ salary cap hit is $17.6 million in 2024.
“Yes, paying a hefty amount for two running backs in one year like the Packers would do for Jones and Barkley in this hypothetical would give anyone pause,” Schneidman wrote. “If they plan to keep Jones for more than one more season, that probably eliminates the possibility of this happening altogether.”
From a purely general perspective, there is some value in zigging when the rest of the competition is zagging.
Value Exists in Packers Pairing Aaron Jones, Saquon Barkley and Creating NFL’s Top Rushing Attack
A recent for instance — the Baltimore Ravens led the league in rushing in 2023, per NFL.com, and finished the year one game shy of the Super Bowl. The San Francisco 49ers were third in rushing and lost in the Super Bowl. The Detroit Lions, who fell to the Niners in the NFC Championship Game, finished fifth in the NFL in total rushing yards.
So perhaps the lesson in the modern NFL is that any team interested in playing into late January and February better be able to run the ball effectively or have Patrick Mahomes under center.
Jordan Love was exceptional in his first full year as a starter and could contend for MVPs down the line, but he’s not Mahomes just yet. As such, surrounding him with quality running backs through his early prime is ostensibly a solid strategy as a complement to one of the youngest and least expensive pass-catching groups in the league.
Let us not forget that Jones came on strong in the final five games of the campaign (three regular season and two playoffs), rushing for 100-plus yards in each contest and putting the Packers in a position to earn their way into the NFC Championship Game.
Of course, spending upwards of $28 million in cap space on the position between Barkley and Jones is probably taking the investment too far. However, Green Bay convinced Jones to agree to a $5 million pay cut last season and is working with the RB’s representation to bring his cap hit down once again, per Tom Silverstein of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
Gutekunst said at the Combine that the Packers would like to “be really aggressive” in free agency, and pairing Barkley with Jones would certainly qualify.
