The Cleveland Browns continue to stand behind Deshaun Watson publicly, but that foothold is liable to falter next season just as soon as the QB does.

Perhaps Watson will return healthy from shoulder surgery and regain the Pro-Bowl form he possessed for three seasons with the Houston Texans before off-field issues derailed his career — or at least figure out how to stay on the field for more than six games a year, which was his tally in 2022 and 2023. But it’s more likely that the middling-to-poor performances that have defined Watson’s tenure in Cleveland will perpetuate and the Browns will again be trying to contend for a Super Bowl not because of their quarterback, but in spite of him.

The likelihood of that reality argues for the franchise to take a shot beyond a reunion with Jacoby Brissett or Joe Flacco this offseason as backups, moderate challengers and potential replacements for Watson if something goes wrong, which history suggests it will. Seth Walder of ESPN suggested on February 16 that the Browns flip draft capital to the Chicago Bears for QB Justin Fields, who is a near certainty to play elsewhere this upcoming season.

“If I were the Browns, I would look at Deshaun Watson as mostly a sunk cost and try to upgrade at quarterback,” Walder wrote. “With no first-round pick and so much money already heading Watson’s way, this would be tough to do. But trading a second- or third-round pick for Fields (still on his rookie contract) is feasible.”

Justin Fields Offers Browns Reasonably Affordable Option Over Next 2 Seasons

The Browns surrendered three first-round picks, and then some, for the right to pay Watson $230 million in fully-guaranteed salary two years ago. As such, one second-rounder for Fields who will play on a cost-controlled contract for the next two seasons reads like the bargain of the century.

Spotrac currently projects Fields’ market value at $283 million total over a new six-year contract ($47 million annually). However, the three-year Bears starter and former No. 11 overall pick in 2021 will play on the final season of his initial four-year, $18.9 million rookie deal in 2024. Chicago, or whichever team holds Fields’ rights ahead of the May deadline, is almost certain to exercise the fifth-year team option on that contract, which will keep the QB under contract in 2025 for the reasonable price (by today’s standards) of $25.7 million.

In reality then, Cleveland would be on the hook for less than $32 million in combined cap hits across two seasons if the franchise decided to trade for Fields, which is essentially half of the $64 million cap hit Watson’s contract carries in each of the next three years. If Watson surprises and works out in 2024, the Browns could look to deal Fields ahead of the trade deadline or next offseason for the type of return that should more or less offset what they’d have to give up to acquire him in the coming weeks.

Cleveland doesn’t select until No. 54 in this April’s draft, while other teams potentially interested in Fields — like the Pittsburgh Steelers (No. 51) and Atlanta Falcons (No. 43) — can offer a slightly better second-round asset. Still, if the Browns are serious about getting in the conversation, they can add another Day-3 pick to make their offer competitive.

Browns Must Decide Quickly on Backup Plan for Deshaun Watson

Cleveland doesn’t have a lot of time to decide which path it wants to tread as far as a backup QB/contingency plan if Watson falls flat as the No. 1 option under center for the third year in a row.

Bears general manager Ryan Poles said Tuesday he wants to “do right” by Fields, and he also has a responsibility to get the most possible in return for the QB. All of that translates into Chicago beginning trade conversations in earnest on March 13, which is the earliest such deals can be executed based on league rules.

Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski told reporters Wednesday that he and new offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey are headed to Los Angeles next week to parlay with Watson, who will begin throwing soon as part of his shoulder rehabilitation program.

“I know he’s going to start throwing here shortly. He’s hitting all of his milestones,” Stefanski said. “Ken and I are going to go out and see him next week and spend some time. Not talk football, just catch up. Won’t see him throw, but just want to check in on him. But I text him almost every day, so he’s in a good place.”

As far as the place Watson is in with the franchise, the passage of time and the Browns’ corresponding moves should soon tell.