The Minnesota Vikings‘ picture at quarterback got just a little bit clearer on Monday, with the confirmation that one of their most viable veteran targets to replace Kirk Cousins will hit free agency in March.

Ari Meirov of The 33rd team confirmed on February 26 that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will not use the franchise tag to lock up Baker Mayfield on a one-year contract through 2024.\

The #Bucs won’t use the franchise tag on Baker Mayfield, which would allow him to become a free agent if he wants to.

His situation feels very similar to what Seattle had with Geno Smith last year.

Discussing all the scenarios with @PFF_Sam & @PFF_Steve on @The33rdTeamFB:

“The #Bucs won’t use the franchise tag on Baker Mayfield, which would allow him to become a free agent if he wants to,” Meirov said. “His situation feels very similar to what Seattle had with Geno Smith last year.”

Meirov went on to explain that the Seahawks bet there would be no other team in the NFL willing to pay Smith the amount they were willing to pay him. As such, they took the calculated risk of allowing Smith to enter free agency, explore his options and then come back to the table with a more reasonable expectation of what a deal should look like given his resurgent campaign the season prior.

Tampa Bay is doing something similar with Mayfield. However, the situation is a little different given Mayfield had considerably more success before his Bucs tenure than Smith had before landing in Seattle. Mayfield will also be four years younger than Smith was when his free agency hits in March.

“He could have a market if he wants one,” Meirov acknowledged of Mayfield’s situation.

The Vikings may not be the prime suspect to get in the game for Mayfield come March 13, but if they haven’t reached a deal with Cousins by then, all bets are off.

Vikings Can Offer Baker Mayfield Ecosystem He Needs to Succeed as NFL Starter

The Seahawks signed Smith to a three-year deal worth $75 million ($25 million annually) that included $40 million guaranteed and had a built-in out after the first season. Spotrac projects Mayfield’s market value at $27.1 million per season over a four-year contract ($108.5 million total).

“If it’s in the $25 million range, I think I’m okay with it, but you better have that really good ecosystem for Baker Mayfield,” Steve Palazzolo of Pro Football Focus said during a brief panel on the QB’s situation with Meirov and Sam Monson of PFF.

The teams the trio mentioned as likely destinations for Mayfield up to that point were the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Atlanta Falcons or a return to the Bucs. They also threw the New England Patriots into the mix.

“The most likely destination for Baker Mayfield is back in Tampa Bay,” Monson said. “But, if he does hit the open market, there’s a couple of interesting teams out there that would make a lot of sense.”

Minnesota did not come up in the conversation, but in terms of quarterback ecosystems, there are few better. Assuming the franchise ultimately re-signs All-Pro wide receiver Justin Jefferson, the Vikings can also offer the services of 2023 standout rookie pass-catcher Jordan Addison and Pro Bowl tight end T.J. Hockenson.

Head coach Kevin O’Connell had Cousins playing the best football of his career in his mid-30s last season and has a Super Bowl-winning history as an offensive coordinator with the Los Angeles Rams. O’Connell was also an NFL quarterback himself, which gives him further insight into that specific position.

Baker Mayfield Has Points in His Favor as Vikings QB Over Kirk Cousins, Sam Darnold

Alex Kay of Bleacher Report last week floated the idea of the Vikings looking at Mayfield as a replacement for Cousins.

“Rather than paying Cousins top dollar for flashy regular season numbers and inevitable playoff disappointments, the Vikings should instead consider Baker Mayfield for the job,” Kay said, per SKOR North’s X account.

The widespread assumptions are that Minnesota will either eventually re-up with Cousins or look to select a quarterback in the NFL draft. The Vikings own the No. 11 pick and could make a play for a QB there.

They could also trade down, accumulate assets and draft a signal-caller later in the first round. Or they could try and move up into the top three via the Patriots and go after one of the potential franchise prospects. Charley Walters of the Pioneer Press is the most recent analyst to suggest Sam Darnold as a one-year bridge quarterback if the team goes the draft route.

But Mayfield can work in that role as well on the kind of three-year deal that the Seahawks gave Smith one offseason past, and he is vastly more accomplished than Darnold. In fact, when it comes to playoff performances, he’s a better choice than Cousins as well.

Cousins is 1-4 as a playoff starter, while Mayfield is 2-2 and has won a postseason game more recently (January 2023). Mayfield will cost less than Cousins annually, will command less guaranteed money overall and gives the Vikings more flexibility to make a move for a rookie QB in this year’s draft and potentially transition to that player in 2025.

Mayfield to Minnesota isn’t a home run, but it is a legitimate fit and possibility, particularly if the Cousins extension talks continue to drag out.